The predictability, profitability and applicability of technical trading over buy-and-hold strategy of the Malaysian equity and commodity markets

Abstract

This thesis investigates the predictability, profitability and applicability of technical analysis in the Malaysian equities and commodity markets in relation to the naïve buy-and-hold strategy. In addition to the predictive ability and potential profit that may be generated by the technical analysis, the study also seeks to understand its usefulness when applying to different assets classes (inter and intra). The technical analysis incorporates the Variable Length Moving Averages, Fixed Length Moving Averages, Trading Range Breakouts and Bollinger Bands technical trading rules. The data of three Malaysian market indices – FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index, Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil Futures and two single stock counters - Maybank and Sime Darby - were examined. The predictive ability of the technical analysis is determined by testing the differences of market returns generated by the technical trading rules over the naïve buy-and-hold strategy. Accordingly, the breakeven cost of the technical trading rules is computed by apportioning the additional earnings generated by the rules over the total number of signals (buys and sells) created. The breakeven cost is then compared to the actual transaction cost. The technical trading is considered profitable if its returns exceed the actual transaction cost. Then, the relationship of the assets (inter and intra) against all of the technical trading rules tested are assessed via a rigorous tabulation analysis. The results record that the Variable Length Moving Averages and Fixed Length Moving Averages technical trading rules emerge to provide a significant degree of predictability as well as profitability over the data samples tested. However, the Trading Range Breakouts and Bollinger Bands technical trading rules are found not to be able to outperform the naïve buy-and-hold strategy in terms of both – the predictability and profitability in the similar markets. There is also no solid evidence found in terms of the advantage that could be derived in relation to the applicability of the technical trading rules over different assets classes (inter and intra). The results show that the benefit generated from the technical trading rules does not differ much if the technical trading rules were to be applied in (i) stock index or commodity index, (ii) stock index or single stock and (iii) conventional stock index or Shariah stock index; similar outcomes will be expected. Thus, the study believes that results obtained shall be worthy to the users; particularly, in the context of assets allocation decision-making.