Asymmetric impact of environmental quality, climate change and economic growth on food security in Ghana : a nonlinear ARDL approach

Abstract

The originality of this dissertation is that it contributes to knowledge by filling up the gap identified in the existing studies on the impact of environmental quality, climate change and economic growth on food security. Specifically, this study offers nonlinear assessments of the influence of environmental quality, climate change and business cycles on food security in Ghana. The study investigates the nonlinear short- and long-run correlation between food security, environmental quality, climate change and economic growth in Ghana. The study uses the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) to evaluate annual data spanning 1965 to 2016. The findings suggest that relying on the outcomes based on symmetric models and ignoring the potential nonlinearities may be misleading. The results reveal the presence of both short-and long-run nonlinear relationships between food security, environmental quality, climate change and economic growth. In particular, the findings suggest that the response of food security to the positive and negative changes in environmental quality (CO2 emissions), climate change (RAIN) and economic growth (GDP per capita) is statistically significant in both short- and long-term periods. There exists an inverse link between environmental quality, economic growth and food security in the long-run. Food security response to adverse effects of both CO2 emissions and GDP per capita is more robust and faster than the response of food security to the positive shocks of both variables in Ghana. Nevertheless, the response of food security to the adverse shocks of CO2 emissions is somewhat infinitesimal. Moreover, food security response to rainfall precipitation during the wet season in Ghana is more significant and faster than food security response to rainfall precipitation during the dry season. Therefore, in contrast, the relationship between food security and climate change is found to be direct in the long-run. The study reckons that a more extensive influence emanates from the positive shocks of rainfall precipitation. The findings in the short-run are mixed and ambiguous. However, the estimates reveal a nonlinear relationship between food security and the explanatory variables. Notably, in the short-run, the positive impact of an increase in CO2 emissions is more influential on food security than the negative impact, while there exists an inverse link between both rainfall precipitation and economic growth and food security in Ghana. The nonlinearity in environmental quality, climate change and economic growth revealed in this dissertation could be of important guideline for the robust evaluation and policymaking on how to mitigate the growing number of food-insecure Ghanaians. The study also reckons that stakeholders in the agricultural sector should harness the potential natural resources in the country and propagate environmentally friendly policies and practices that will help reduce the influx of greenhouse gasses and promote domestic production and food security in Ghana.