Association of climate variability and the trend of dengue cases in Pahang

Abstract

Weather and changes in climate are reported as fundamental driving forces behind the dengue epidemic in Malaysia as it directly influences the abundance and distribution of vector. Pahang is located in the eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia and experienced strong winds and heavy rainfall during the Northeast monsoon. In contrast, it will encounter a dry season with high temperatures during the Southwest Monsoon. However, climate variables are yet to be fully utilized for control and prevention activities, particularly in Pahang, where limited studies have been conducted. This study aims to determine the association between climate variability and dengue cases according to the district in Pahang, Malaysia, from 2011 to 2018. Monthly dengue cases and average monthly temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and surface wind speed were obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia and the Malaysian Meteorological Department, respectively. Poisson generalized linear model and overdispersed Poisson were developed to quantify the association between climate data and the number of dengue cases at lag 0 and lag 1-month. The total number of dengue cases was 13170. The Poisson generalized linear model indicates that variability in maximum temperature and relative humidity mainly influenced the dengue cases in Pekan and Rompin. At lag 0-month, the findings revealed a positive association between relative humidity and dengue cases in Pekan (p = 0.014) and Rompin (p = 0.001). Raub indicated a positive association between temperature with dengue cases (p = 0.022). Surface wind speed was inversely associated with dengue cases in Bera (p < 0.001), Maran (p = 0.032), and Temerloh (p = 0.003). At lag 1-month, the temperature was significantly associated with dengue cases in Pekan (p=0.021) and Rompin (p=0.027). Rainfall was significantly associated with dengue cases in Kuantan(p=0.024) and Lipis(p=0.016). An inversed relationship between rainfall and dengue cases was found in Bentong(p<0.001). Based on the current findings, variability in temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and surface wind speed have been proven to exacerbate the dengue occurrence in Pahang. The outcome of this study is essential in planning and control strategies to reduce the mortality and morbidity of dengue under the Pahang State Health Department.